Estrada, Breneman and Hayward
These were the findings of an independent expert panel that was convened by the California Higher Education Policy Center. Their conclusions assume that California will continue its policy of providing educational opportunity for all qualified students, a policy that has been in place since 1960 but that has been eroding in the 1990s.
According to the panel's report, the University of California should plan for enrollment growth of 29,000, the California State University for 74,000, and the community colleges for 385,000 additional students by the 2005-2006 academic year.
These findings endorse the projections made by the California Postsecondary Education Commission (CPEC) and are similar to those made by the state Department of Finance. However, they vary considerably from recent University of California estimates, which are lower by 19,000, and from community college forecasts, which are 160,000 higher than those recommended by the panel.
Members of the advisory panel were David W. Breneman, dean of the Curry School of Education, University of Virginia; Leo Estrada, associate professor in the Graduate School of Public Policy and Social Research at UCLA; and Gerald C. Hayward, director, Policy Analysis for California Education (PACE).
Estrada, Breneman and Hayward
The panel studied a variety of enrollment projection reports , then met in San Diego for two days in early July to discuss the numbers with the authors of these reports. The panelists concluded that the enrollment forecasts "most nearly comport with our basic assumption" that the 1960 Master Plan for Higher Education goal of access for all qualified students be retained.
CPEC estimates that University of California undergraduate enrollment will increase from 123,873 in the 1994-95 academic year to 152,930 by the year 2005-2006--an increase of 29,057.
For the 22-campus California State University system, CPEC predicts that enrollment will rise from 261,508 students in 1994-95 to 335,396 in 2005-2006--an increase of 73,888. And community college enrollment is expected to swell from 1,337,085 to 1,722,170, an increase of 385,085.
The report also noted that CPEC had prepared "low alternative projections," which assume that the budget cuts and fee increases of the last five years will not be continued but neither will they be rescinded.
Total undergraduate enrollment would increase by more than 370,000, not 488,000, in the next ten years, according to this "low alternative." By the 2005- 2006 academic year, UC enrollment would grow by 24,194 additional undergraduates (not 29,057), Cal State by 48,288 (not 73,888) and the community colleges by slightly less than 300,000 (not 385,000).
However, the panel found the University of California's projected undergraduate increase over the next decade to be too low. The panelists concluded that the CPEC prediction of a one percent increase in both African-American and Latino participation rates (the percentage of high school graduates who enroll in the university) was more than likely to occur than UC's forecast of no change in the participation rate.
They rejected as too high estimates prepared by the Community College Chancellor's office.
The report notes that policies pursued by the various higher education systems and by the state will have sharp impact on future enrollments. For example, if the University of California does not seek to recruit African-American and Latino high school graduates and community college transfer students vigorously, then participation by these groups is likely to remain at the relatively low levels predicted in UC's own enrollment projection report.
The panel's report is designed to assist the California Higher Education Policy Center as it develops a set of recommendations for coping with the coming enrollment surge that has become known as "Tidal Wave Two."
The Center has launched a new national study to address critical issues in state finance of higher education. The project will include case studies of higher education funding in several states, including California; policy papers; and a national "roundtable" discussion of the topic next spring.
The focus of the project will be on shifts in state and private funding of higher education and on the policy implications for states, as well as for public and independent colleges and universities. The Center will collaborate with the Institute for Higher Education Research at the University of Pennsylvania and with several state policy organizations on this project.
Funding has been provided by the Ford Foundation and the James Irvine Foundation.
